Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score for Diagnosis of Psoriatic Arthritis

Diagnosis of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) can be challenging, resulting in delays that contribute to irreversible joint damage, reduced quality of life, and increased mortality.

Use genetic markers to develop and evaluate a PsA genetic risk score (GRS) for its ability to discriminate between psoriasis (PsO) only and PsO with PsA among a psoriatic cohort with full genome-wide genotype data.

Genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism genotyping was performed on 724 psoriatic patients. A set of 11 candidate risk genes previously shown to be preferentially associated with PsO or PsA were selected. To evaluate the cumulative effects of these risk loci, a PsA GRS was developed using an unweighted risk allele count (cGRS) and a weighted (wGRS) approach. Additional analyses included only human leukocyte antigen (HLA) risk alleles.

The discriminative power attributable to each GRS was evaluated by calculating the areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC). The AUROC for the wGRS is 56.2% versus 54.1% for the cGRS, and the AUROC for the HLA-only wGRS model was 56.9% versus 55.7% for the HLA-only cGRS.

The AUROC of 56.9% for HLA-only wGRS indicates that this approach has the greatest power in discriminating PsA from PsO among these models. Given that an AUROC of 56.9% is quite modest, this study suggests that using a small number of well-validated genetic loci provides limited predictive power for PsA, and that future approaches may benefit from using a larger number of genetic loci.