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Updated: Dec 20, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Cumulative impact assessment for ecosystem-based marine spatial planning
Linus Hammar1, Sverker Molander2, Jonas Pålsson1
1Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Marine spatial planning (MSP) can reduce cumulative environmental impacts by integrating ecosystem protection into decision-making. A new scenario component in Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) supports this by projecting impacts of different planning alternatives.
Area of Science:
- Marine spatial planning
- Ecosystem-based management
- Environmental impact assessment
Background:
- Increasing ocean space claims conflict with marine ecosystem health due to human pressures like pollution and overfishing.
- Ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP) is a global strategy to balance competing sector interests with environmental protection.
- Marine planners require effective decision support tools to achieve the dual goals of economic development and environmental conservation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To enhance the Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) model with a scenario component for projecting environmental impacts within MSP.
- To integrate environmental considerations more effectively into strategic decision-making for marine spatial planning.
- To assess the potential of MSP to reduce net cumulative environmental impacts in marine ecosystems.
Main Methods:
- Developed and integrated a scenario component into the existing Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) model.
- Applied the enhanced CIA model within the Swedish ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP) process.
- Analyzed projected environmental impacts for various planning alternatives in the North Sea and Baltic Sea.
Main Results:
- The scenario-enabled CIA model successfully projected environmental impacts of different planning alternatives.
- Results from Swedish MSP demonstrate that MSP can lower net cumulative environmental impact when environmental values are prioritized.
- The CIA model synthesizes complex data into decision support, informing planners of likely environmental consequences of MSP options.
Conclusions:
- Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) with a scenario component enables practical ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP).
- MSP has the potential to mitigate cumulative environmental impacts, provided environmental values are prioritized and pressures are managed within the planning framework.
- This approach strengthens the integration of environmental considerations into strategic marine management decisions.
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