Patient Age and Survival After Surgery for Esophageal Cancer

Esophagectomy for esophageal cancer is associated with a substantial risk of life-threatening complications and a limited long-term survival. This study aimed to clarify the controversial questions of how age influences short-term and long-term survival.

This population-based cohort study included almost all patients who underwent curatively intended esophagectomy for esophageal cancer in Sweden in 1987-2010, with follow-up through 2016. The exposure was age, analyzed both as a continuous and categorical variable. The probability of mortality was computed using a novel flexible parametric model approach. The reported probabilities are proper measures of the risk of dying, and the related odds ratios (OR) are therefore more suitable measures of association than hazard ratios. The outcomes were 90-day all-cause mortality, 5-year all-cause mortality, and 5-year disease-specific mortality. A novel flexible parametric model was used to derive the instantaneous probability of dying and the related OR along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for sex, education, comorbidity, tumor histology, pathological tumor stage, and resection margin status.

Among 1737 included patients, the median age was 65.6 years. When analyzed as a continuous variable, older age was associated with slightly higher odds of 90-day all-cause mortality (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.07), 5-year all-cause mortality (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), and 5-year disease-specific mortality (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.02). Compared with patients aged < 70 years, those aged 70-74 years had no increased risk of any mortality outcome, while patients aged ≥ 75 years had higher odds of 90-day mortality (OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.68-4.84), 5-year all-cause mortality (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.27-1.92), and 5-year disease-specific mortality (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.09-1.76).

Patient age 75 years or older at esophagectomy for esophageal cancer appears to be an independent risk factor for higher short-term mortality and lower long-term survival.