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Forecast Possible Risk for COVID-19 Epidemic Dissemination Under Current Control Strategies in Japan.
Zhongxiang Chen1, Jun Yang1, Binxiang Dai2
1College of Engineering and Design, Hunan Normal University, Yuelu District, Changsha 410081, Hunan, China.
Summary
The COVID-19 basic reproduction number in Japan is 1.954, indicating rapid spread. Strict public health measures are recommended to prevent millions of deaths and healthcare system collapse.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic poses a severe threat globally, with Japan experiencing a serious epidemic situation.
- Understanding the dynamics of COVID-19 spread is crucial for effective control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the risk of COVID-19 epidemic dissemination in Japan.
- To estimate the current epidemic status and provide prevention and control recommendations.
Main Methods:
- Divided the period Jan 6 - Mar 31, 2020, into four stages to estimate COVID-19 parameters based on imported cases.
- Calculated the basic reproduction number (R0) and self-healing rate.
- Validated the model using reported cases from April 1-5, 2020, ensuring forecast accuracy within a 2.5% relative error.
Main Results:
- The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated at 1.954 (95% CI 1.851-2.025), signifying rapid COVID-19 spread in Japan.
- The self-healing rate was approximately 0.495 (95% CI 0.437-0.506).
- Projected that epidemic beds and ventilators could be fully occupied by May 5 and May 15, 2020, respectively, with a potential death toll reaching millions if current trends continue.
Conclusions:
- Urgent and robust public health interventions are necessary to curb the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan.
- Recommendations include nationwide shutdowns, store closures, home isolation, and increased PCR testing, drawing from successful strategies in China.
- Implementing these measures can effectively prevent widespread transmission and mitigate the severe impact on healthcare resources and mortality.
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