Setting the new FRAX reference threshold without bone mineral density in Chinese postmenopausal women

Despite the large number of osteoporosis patients in China, the diagnosis and treatment rates remain low. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) can be used to effectively evaluate fracture risk. In this study, we explored the Chinese-specific thresholds of FRAX without the T-score.

In all, 264 postmenopausal women aged > 50 years were randomly recruited from community-medical centers. All subjects completed self-reported questionnaires, BMD measurements, and spinal radiographs. The 10-year hip and major osteoporotic fracture risks were calculated by FRAX. A new threshold for both 10-year hip and major osteoporotic fracture risk was explored with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Overall, 92 subjects were diagnosed with osteoporosis. Among them, 14 participants with T-score > - 2.5 were diagnosed with osteoporosis based on clinical fractures. ROC analysis showed the cut-off value of the 10-year hip osteoporotic fracture for detecting osteoporosis was 0.95%, while that of 10-year major osteoporotic fracture was 4.95%. The sensitivity and specificity of the 10-year hip osteoporotic fracture probability for detecting osteoporosis were 0.86 and 0.59, respectively, while the guideline-recommended threshold had a sensitivity of 0.49 and specificity of 0.83. The sensitivity and specificity of the 10-year major osteoporotic fractures with the new threshold were 0.76 and 0.69, respectively, while the recommended threshold had a sensitivity of 0 and specificity of 1.

Current guideline-recommended FRAX thresholds without BMD showed low sensitivity. Therefore, 10-year osteoporotic hip fracture probability ≥ 0.95% and 10-year osteoporotic major fracture probability ≥ 4.95% are recommended as the new thresholds.