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Age-period-cohort Analysis of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Japan, 1995-2018

Tasuku Okui1

  • 1Medical Information Center, Kyusyu University Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan.

Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health = Yebang Uihakhoe Chi
|June 6, 2020
PubMed

Insights

Mortality from heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) decreased over time. However, younger women show increasing cohort effects for IHD and CeVD, necessitating targeted prevention strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Cardiovascular diseases, including heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), remain significant causes of mortality globally.
  • Understanding the demographic and temporal trends in mortality rates is crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze mortality trends for HD, IHD, and CeVD in Japan using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.
  • To identify specific age, period, and cohort effects influencing cardiovascular disease mortality.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Japanese Vital Statistics data on cardiovascular disease mortality from 1995 to 2018.
  • Employed Bayesian APC analysis to decompose mortality rate changes into age, period, and cohort effects.
  • Defined age groups in 5-year increments and cohorts with a 1-year shift.

Main Results:

  • Period effects for all studied diseases showed a decreasing trend for both men and women.
  • Men born between the 1940s and 1970s exhibited increasing cohort effects for cardiovascular diseases.
  • While HD cohort effects decreased for those born in the 1970s or later, IHD and CeVD showed increasing cohort effects in younger generations of women (born post-1960s).

Conclusions:

  • Increasing cohort effects for IHD and CeVD in younger women highlight a growing concern.
  • This trend underscores the urgent need for tailored preventive strategies and public health initiatives focused on women's cardiovascular health.
Abstract

Keywords:
Cardiovascular diseasesCohort effectJapanMortality

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