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Estimating COVID-19 outbreak risk through air travel
Yair Daon1,2, Robin N Thompson3,4, Uri Obolski1,2
1School of Public Health, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Journal of Travel Medicine
|June 6, 2020
Summary
Airports in East Asia pose the highest risk for future coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks. Understanding travel-related COVID-19 transmission risks is crucial for public health resource allocation.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Transportation Science
Background:
- Passenger air travel restrictions were implemented to curb severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission.
- As case numbers decline, air travel is expected to resume, posing a risk of imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks globally.
- This study examines a future scenario with low case numbers and normalized air travel.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the risk of various global locations acting as sources for future coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks.
- To identify specific airports with a high potential to seed outbreaks through international travel.
Main Methods:
- Utilized modeled global air travel data and population density estimates for 1364 airports worldwide.
- Employed a probabilistic, branching-process-based approach.
- Incorporated air traveler volume between airports and local reproduction numbers, considering population density.
Main Results:
- Airports in East Asia were identified as having the highest risk of originating future outbreaks.
- India and Brazil face the highest risk of COVID-19 outbreaks seeded by domestic travelers.
- Outbreaks in Africa are most likely to be initiated by international travelers arriving on the continent.
Conclusions:
- The spatial distribution of outbreak risk is non-uniform, influenced by flight volumes and destination population densities.
- Quantifying outbreak risk geographically aids in optimizing resource allocation for public health interventions.
- Targeted public health strategies are essential for mitigating COVID-19 spread via air travel.
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