Estimating Neonatal Herpes Simplex Virus Incidence and Mortality Using Capture-recapture, Florida.

Area of Science:

• Neonatal infections
• Virology
• Public Health Surveillance

Background:

• Neonatal herpes simplex virus (nHSV) infection causes significant morbidity and mortality.
• Accurate national incidence data for nHSV remains uncertain.
• Florida mandates reporting of nHSV cases by healthcare providers and laboratories.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the incidence and mortality of nHSV in Florida.
• To leverage unique datasets including provider reports, electronic laboratory reports (ELR), and vital statistics.
• To improve understanding of nHSV epidemiology through robust data analysis.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a 7-year period (2011-2017) of Florida data.
• Matched provider-reported cases with ELR and vital statistics death records.
• Employed Chapman's capture-recapture method for incidence estimation and log-linear modeling for mortality analysis.

Main Results:

• A total of 265 unique nHSV reports were identified from provider and ELR data.
• Estimated nHSV incidence at 31.5 infections per 100,000 live births (approximately 1 in 3000).
• Estimated 35.8 fatal nHSV cases occurred during the study period.

Conclusions:

• nHSV infections occur at a significant rate, approximately 1 per 3000 live births in Florida.
• The study highlights the importance of integrating multiple data sources for accurate epidemiological surveillance.
• Findings provide crucial data for public health interventions and resource allocation for nHSV.