Long-term renal survival and undetected risk factors of IgA nephropathy in Chinese children-a retrospective 1243...

The long-term renal outcome for IgA nephropathy (IgAN) in large cohorts of children remains unclear. IgAN is a progressive disease, to explore novel biomarkers is necessary for predicting the disease activity and progression of IgAN. In addition, there is a hot debate on when to treat with immunosuppression in children. We aimed to confirm the long-term renal survival, find some undetected risk factors and investigate when to treat with immunosuppression can benefit for renal outcome in Chinese children.

1243 Children with IgAN were enrolled and a follow-up of at least 1 year after a biopsy from 2000 to 2017. Long-term renal survival, undetected risk factors and the renal survival of immunosuppressive and non-immunosuppressive therapy were evaluated. The primary endpoint of the study was a combined outcome of either ≥50% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death.

The median follow-up time were 86.8 months (interquartile range 54.7-140.2 months). The 5-, 10- and 15-year renal survival rates were 95.3%, 90.3% and 84%, respectively. Cox multivariate regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that hypertension, hyperuricemia, high 24 h urine protein (24 h-UP) levels, lower initial eGFR, high urine C3 levels, high retinol-binding protein (RBP) levels, segmental glomerulosclerosis (S) and tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis (T) were associated with renal outcome. The statistically significant predictive perfect power for renal outcome was RBP ≥ 0.7µg/ml (AUC = 0.899, sensitivity = 84.00%, specificity = 86.00%), 24 h-UP ≥ 1 g/24 h (AUC = 0.722, sensitivity = 84.20%, specificity = 52.70%), eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m² (AUC = 0.718, sensitivity = 81.30%, specificity = 39.20%) and S1 lesion (AUC = 0.703, sensitivity = 75.50%, specificity = 65.10%).Children with urinary RBP ≥ 0.7µg/ml were associated with a 2.513-fold risk than patients with urinary RBP < 0.7µg/ml (P = 0.003). Our study suggested that immunosuppressive therapy may reduce the risk of progression in IgAN children had both eGFR > 50 ml/min/1.73 m² and proteinuria of at least 1 g/day.

This is the first report that the 15-year renal survival rate of children with IgAN in China was 84%. At the same time, this is the first study to reveal that urinary RBP ≥ 0.7µg/ml may indicate a poor renal outcome. In addition, this study supports immunosuppressive therapy for IgAN children had both proteinuria ≥1 g/day and initial eGFR > 50 ml/min/1.73m².