Population ageing and mortality during 1990-2017: A global decomposition analysis

Area of Science:

• Demography and Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Gerontology

Background:

• Global populations are aging, necessitating health system reforms to meet increased medical demands.
• Previous research on population aging's health impacts is limited in scope, focusing on few countries and diseases.

Purpose of the Study:

• To comprehensively quantify the impact of population aging on mortality across 195 countries/territories and 169 causes of death.
• To analyze changes in mortality attributed to population growth, aging, and mortality changes from 1990 to 2017.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017).
• Employed a decomposition method to attribute changes in total deaths to demographic and mortality factors.
• Analyzed data for 195 countries/territories, grouped by World Bank economic development levels.

Main Results:

• Global deaths increased by 9 million between 1990 and 2017, with 12 million additional deaths linked to population aging (27.9% of total deaths).
• Population aging increased deaths in high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries, but not in low-income countries.
• Ischemic heart disease (3.2 million) and stroke (2.2 million) were the leading causes of death associated with population aging.

Conclusions:

• Population aging significantly alters mortality numbers, with varying proportions across income levels, countries, and causes of death.
• Targeted preventive and therapeutic strategies are crucial for different regions to manage health needs of the aging population.
• Focus should be on diseases with the highest increase in elderly mortality, such as ischemic heart disease and stroke.