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Beyond Deaths per Capita: Comparative CoViD-19 Mortality Indicators
Patrick Heuveline1, Michael Tzen1
1California Center for Population Research (CCPR), University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
Medrxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
|June 9, 2020
Summary
This study introduces demographic measures for comparing COVID-19 deaths across populations. Indirect standardization is a valid method for international comparisons, showing substantial life expectancy reductions in many areas.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- COVID-19 mortality necessitates standardized measures for accurate international and temporal comparisons.
- Traditional demographic methods require detailed data that may not always be available.
Approach:
- Developed and applied three demographic measures: unstandardized rate, indirectly age-and-sex standardized rate, and reduction in life expectancy at birth.
- Utilized data from 186 UN countries and territories, plus sub-national data from Brazil, China, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Spain, and the USA.
Key Points:
- Unstandardized COVID-19 death rates varied significantly, with New York peaking higher than its state's 2017 Crude Death Rate.
- Standardization revealed different population comparisons; Mexico and Peru showed higher standardized rates than Italy, Spain, and the USA.
- US life expectancy declined by over a year in 2020, reaching its lowest since 2008, with larger reductions in Panama, Peru, Italy, Spain, USA, and Mexico.
Conclusions:
- Indirect standardization is a reliable alternative for international comparisons when detailed age and sex data are limited.
- Several populations experienced significant life expectancy reductions in 2020 due to COVID-19 mortality.
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