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Influence of population mobility on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic: based on panel data from

Junfeng Jiang1, Lisha Luo2,3

  • 1School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, No.115 Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071 China.

Global Health Research and Policy
|June 11, 2020
PubMed

Insights

Population mobility significantly drove COVID-19 transmission. Local lockdowns in Hubei Province effectively curbed the epidemic, demonstrating the impact of mobility restrictions on public health outcomes.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

  • The initial outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China.
  • Mass population movement during the Spring Festival was hypothesized as a key factor in COVID-19 transmission, necessitating further empirical investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically assess the influence of population mobility on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of local lockdown interventions in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 within Hubei Province.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized panel data from Hubei Province, China, spanning January 6th to February 6th, 2020.
  • Employed a random effects model to analyze the relationship between population mobility and COVID-19 transmission.
  • Statistical significance was determined using a p-value threshold of < 0.05 in Stata version 12.0.

Main Results:

  • A significant incubation period of 11-12 days was observed between population movement from Wuhan and COVID-19 confirmation in 16 other Hubei cities.
  • Daily confirmed cases and incidence increments showed marked decreases 9-12 days after the implementation of local city lockdowns.
  • Population mobility was confirmed as a primary driver for the rapid dissemination of COVID-19.

Conclusions:

  • Population mobility demonstrably accelerates the spread of COVID-19.
  • Local lockdown strategies implemented in Hubei Province proved effective in interrupting COVID-19 transmission chains and controlling the epidemic.
Abstract

Keywords:
COVID-19Infectious disease epidemicLockdown interventionPopulation mobility

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