Magmatic overpressures, volatile exsolution and potential explosivity of fissure eruptions inferred via dike aspect...

Buoyant magmas abundant in exsolved volatiles (bubbles) drive the rapid upward-propagation of feeder dikes from magma chambers. The consequence of a feeder dike reaching the surface can result in an explosive volcanic eruption depending, partly, on the retention of volatiles. Therefore, timely detection of the vesicularity and overpressure of the magma during feeder dike ascent is critical for the prediction of the explosivity of any future eruption. In this study, we evaluated the explosivity of eruptions based on field investigations of the erupted products and the overpressure of magma in the conduit based on the dimensions of exposed feeder dikes. We found a positive correlation between the explosivity of eruptions and the magma overpressure generated in the conduit during recent fissure eruptions of Miyakejima volcano. Because the buoyancy of low-density magma produces positive overpressure at the dike's top, feeder dikes with highly-vesiculated magmas possess high amounts of overpressure. An enlargement of the opening width of a feeder dike by magmatic overpressure results in a higher flux of vesiculated magma, which causes vigorous explosive activity. Our results suggest the possibility of forecasting the explosivity of an impending eruption if the width (or opening) of an ascending feeder dike is monitored in real-time through measurements of ground deformation and seismicity induced by the dike.