Prediction of sperm extraction in non-obstructive azoospermia patients: a machine-learning perspective
A Zeadna1, N Khateeb2, L Rokach3
1IVF Unit, Division of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Health Sciences, Soroka University Medical Center, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel.
Study Question:
Can a machine-learning-based model trained in clinical and biological variables support the prediction of the presence or absence of sperm in testicular biopsy in non-obstructive azoospermia (NOA) patients?
Summary Answer:
Our machine-learning model was able to accurately predict (AUC of 0.8) the presence or absence of spermatozoa in patients with NOA.
What Is Known Already:
Patients with NOA can conceive with their own biological gametes using ICSI in combination with successful testicular sperm extraction (TESE). Testicular sperm retrieval is successful in up to 50% of men with NOA. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no existing model that can accurately predict the success of sperm retrieval in TESE. Moreover, machine-learning has never been used for this purpose.
Study Design, Size, Duration:
A retrospective cohort study of 119 patients who underwent TESE in a single IVF unit between 1995 and 2017 was conducted. All patients with NOA who underwent TESE during their fertility treatments were included. The development of gradient-boosted trees (GBTs) aimed to predict the presence or absence of spermatozoa in patients with NOA. The accuracy of these GBTs was then compared to a similar multivariate logistic regression model (MvLRM).
Participants/Materials, Setting, Methods:
We employed univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression models to predict the probability of successful TESE using a dataset from a retrospective cohort. In addition, we examined various ensemble machine-learning models (GBT and random forest) and evaluated their predictive performance using the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. A cutoff value for successful/unsuccessful TESE was calculated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.
Main Results And The Role Of Chance:
ROC analysis resulted in an AUC of 0.807 ± 0.032 (95% CI 0.743-0.871) for the proposed GBTs and 0.75 ± 0.052 (95% CI 0.65-0.85) for the MvLRM for the prediction of presence or absence of spermatozoa in patients with NOA. The GBT approach and the MvLRM yielded a sensitivity of 91% vs. 97%, respectively, but the GBT approach has a specificity of 51% compared with 25% for the MvLRM. A total of 78 (65.3%) men with NOA experienced successful TESE. FSH, LH, testosterone, semen volume, age, BMI, ethnicity and testicular size on clinical evaluation were included in these models.
Limitations, Reasons For Caution:
This study is a retrospective cohort study, with all the associated inherent biases of such studies. This model was used only for TESE, since micro-TESE is not performed at our center.
Wider Implications Of The Findings:
Machine-learning models may lay the foundation for a decision support system for clinicians together with their NOA patients concerning TESE. The findings of this study should be confirmed with further larger and prospective studies.
Study Funding/Competing Interest(S):
The study was funded by the Division of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Soroka University Medical Center, there are no potential conflicts of interest for all authors.
