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Towards transferability in fish migration models: A generic operational tool for predicting silver eel migration in
Nils Teichert1, Stéphane Tétard2, Thomas Trancart1
1Laboratoire de Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques (BOREA) MNHN, CNRS, IRD, SU, UCN, UA, Paris, France; MNHN, Station Marine de Dinard, CRESCO, Dinard, France.
The Science of the Total Environment
|June 17, 2020
Summary
Predicting silver eel (Anguilla anguilla) migration is crucial for river conservation. A new hydrological model accurately forecasts eel migration peaks, aiding management strategies even in data-poor regions.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Hydrology
Background:
- River fragmentation globally threatens diadromous fish migration.
- Effective conservation requires transferable models for data-poor regions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a transferable model predicting silver eel migration peaks.
- To aid in implementing large-scale river management strategies for eel conservation.
Main Methods:
- Surveyed 12 European river sites with contrasted hydrological conditions.
- Utilized ensemble modeling with Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and hydrological variables.
- Incorporated catchment size to improve model transferability and prediction accuracy.
Main Results:
- Accurate prediction of silver eel migration runs based on river discharge changes.
- Improved transferability and predictive performance by accounting for catchment size variations.
- Identified limitations in prediction accuracy due to severe human impacts on river flow.
Conclusions:
- A transferable, hydrological-based modeling framework can predict eel migration.
- The approach supports large-scale eel conservation management, even with limited monitoring data.
- An R package, 'silvRpeak', facilitates operational implementation for managers.

