Rural-Urban Disparity of Under-Five Mortality Rate in Iran from 1990 to 2015

To estimate under-five mortality rate (U5MR), as one of the sustainable development goals, in rural and urban areas of Iran from 1990 to 2015.

We used the data collected through two censuses and one Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). We analyzed the Summary Birth History (SBH) data via 2 approaches including Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP) methods, and then, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) was used to combine the three trends and with 95% uncertainty. Finally, Ratio of U5MR in rural to urban was calculated.

At the national level and in urban areas, U5MR in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 was 66, 34, 18, and 13 per 1000 live births, respectively. Corresponding values in rural areas in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 was 129, 64, 31, and 21 per 1000 live births, respectively. Accordingly, the ratio of U5MR in rural to urban at the national level was 1.93, 1.86, 1.72 and 1.63 in the same years. At the sub-national level, U5MR in urban areas ranged from 11.2 per 1000 live births in Isfahan to 18.2 per 1000 live births in Hormuzagn. U5MR in rural areas ranged from 14.1 per 1000 live births in Isfahan to 29.5 per 1000 live births in Sistan and Baluchistan.

There is still a gap between rural and urban areas, although it has decreased during the 25 years of the study. To alleviate this gap, health system authorities are advised to plan appropriate actions using multi-sectoral capacities.