Prediction of prognostic risk factors in hepatocellular carcinoma with transarterial chemoembolization using...

Due to heterogeneity of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), outcome assessment of HCC with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is challenging.

We built histologic-related scores to determine microvascular invasion (MVI) and Edmondson-Steiner grade by training CT radiomics features using machine learning classifiers in a cohort of 494 HCCs with hepatic resection. Meanwhile, we developed a deep learning (DL)-score for disease-specific survival by training CT imaging using DL networks in a cohort of 243 HCCs with TACE. Then, three newly built imaging hallmarks with clinicoradiologic factors were analyzed with a Cox-Proportional Hazard (Cox-PH) model.

In HCCs with hepatic resection, two imaging hallmarks resulted in areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71-0.85) and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64-0.79) for predicting MVI and Edmondson-Steiner grade, respectively, using test data. In HCCs with TACE, higher DL-score (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.01; 95% CI: 2.02-4.50), American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage III+IV (HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.12-2.61), Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) with stable disease + progressive disease (HR: 2.72; 95% CI: 1.84-4.01), and TACE-course > 3 (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.45-0.76) were independent prognostic factors. Using these factors via a Cox-PH model resulted in a concordance index of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71-0.76) for predicting overall survival and AUCs of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81-0.89), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86-0.94), and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0.92), respectively, for predicting 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival.

Our study offers a DL-based, noninvasive imaging hallmark to predict outcome of HCCs with TACE.

This work was supported by the key research and development program of Jiangsu Province (Grant number: BE2017756).