Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004-2025

We examine recent trends in the major cancers occurring in the Golestan province, a high-risk region for upper gastrointestinal cancers in Northern Iran, and provide short-term cancer predictions of the future cancer burden.

New cancer cases diagnosed in Golestan 2004-2016 were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) database, and age-standardized rates by cancer site, year and sex calculated per 100,000 person-years. Using IARC's DepPred package we fitted time-linear age-period models to the available GPCR data to predict the cancer incidence burden in the year 2025. We calculated the contribution of demographic changes versus changes in risk to the overall changes in incidence from 2016 to 2025.

The number of new cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers) in 2025 is predicted to increase by 61.3% from 2678 cases in 2016 to 4319 cases. While a 17.6% reduction in the number of esophageal cancer cases is predicted by 2025, the number of new cases for each of the remaining major cancers is predicted to increase over the next decade, including cancers of the stomach (a 36.1% increase from 2016 to 2025), colorectum (56.2%), lung (67.8%), female breast (93.2%), prostate (101.8%) and leukemia (96.1%). The changes in the population structure and risk contributed 37.8% and 23.5% respectively, to the overall increase in incidence.

Other than for the major upper gastrointestinal cancer types, the incidence rates of common cancers observed in the province are on the rise, reinforcing the need for continuous surveillance, as well as the design and implementation of effective cancer control programs.