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There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
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Updated: Dec 18, 2025

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
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Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests.

William R L Anderegg1, Anna T Trugman2, Grayson Badgley3

  • 1School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84113, USA. anderegg@utah.edu.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 20, 2020
PubMed
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Forests can mitigate climate change, but climate risks like fire and drought threaten forest carbon sinks. Understanding these risks is crucial for effective forest-based climate solutions.

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Area of Science:

  • Forest Ecology
  • Climate Change Science
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Forests play a vital role in mitigating anthropogenic climate change and offer numerous societal co-benefits.
  • Climate change presents significant risks, potentially undermining the stability of forest carbon sinks throughout the 21st century.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To synthesize current knowledge on climate-driven risks to forest stability, including fire, drought, and biotic agents.
  • To review how natural climate solutions utilizing forests currently account for these risks and how they could be improved.
  • To highlight recent scientific advances enhancing the estimation and forecasting of risks to forest stability.

Main Methods:

  • Literature synthesis of climate-driven risks (fire, drought, biotic agents) to forest stability.
  • Review of current practices in using forests as natural climate solutions.
  • Analysis of recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, ecological modeling, and remote sensing.

Main Results:

  • Climate-driven disturbances pose a fundamental threat to forest carbon sinks.
  • Current approaches to natural climate solutions may not fully incorporate scientific understanding of climate-driven risks.
  • Advances in ecological science are improving risk assessment and forecasting for forest stability.

Conclusions:

  • A comprehensive understanding and quantification of climate-driven risks are essential for optimizing the use of forests as natural climate solutions.
  • Policy-makers and stakeholders need to integrate robust risk assessments into forest management and climate mitigation strategies.
  • Continued research and technological advancements are key to ensuring the long-term efficacy of forest-based climate solutions.