Quantifying the immediate computational effects of preceding outcomes on subsequent risky choices

Forty years ago, prospect theory introduced the notion that risky options are evaluated relative to their recent context, causing a significant shift in the study of risky monetary decision-making in psychology, economics, and neuroscience. Despite the central role of past experiences, it remains unclear whether, how, and how much past experiences quantitatively influence risky monetary choices moment-to-moment in a nominally learning-free setting. We analyzed a large dataset of risky monetary choices with trial-by-trial feedback to quantify how past experiences, or recent events, influence risky choice behavior and the underlying processes. We found larger recent outcomes both negatively influence subsequent risk-taking and positively influence the weight put on potential losses. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to fit a modified version of prospect theory, we demonstrated that the same risks will be evaluated differently given different past experiences. The computations underlying risky decision-making are fundamentally dynamic, even if the environment is not.