New Approaches to Age Estimation Using Palatal Suture Fusion

Area of Science:

• Forensic Anthropology
• Bioarchaeology
• Human Osteology

Background:

• Palatal suture fusion is an underutilized indicator for age estimation due to limited research.
• Existing methods lack robust validation and standardized scoring.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a modified scoring method for palatal suture fusion.
• To compare two Bayesian approaches for age estimation: transition analysis (TA) and Bayesian multiple linear regression (BMLR).

Main Methods:

• Examined palatal suture fusion in documented adult male skeletal samples from American and Portuguese collections.
• Applied univariate and multivariate transition analysis (TA) with informative priors.
• Utilized Bayesian multiple linear regression (BMLR) with fusion indicator statuses as predictors.
• Assessed age estimation accuracy using highest posterior density regions (HPDRs), highest posterior density intervals (HDI), and cumulative binomial tests.

Main Results:

• Multivariate TA provided better age capture for younger individuals but tended to underestimate age.
• BMLR prediction intervals were more accurate and precise than TA's HPDRs.
• BMLR results were unbiased, yielding reasonable age ranges and maintaining accuracy.

Conclusions:

• The modified palatal suture fusion method, particularly BMLR, offers a reliable approach for age estimation in adults.
• BMLR is a novel and effective tool for the aging literature, providing accurate and precise age ranges.
• A lookup table and R script are provided for practical application of the BMLR method.