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Updated: Dec 17, 2025

Measuring Microbial Mutation Rates with the Fluctuation Assay
Published on: November 28, 2019
Maximum likelihood estimators for scaled mutation rates in an equilibrium mutation-drift model
Claus Vogl1, Lynette C Mikula2, Conrad J Burden3
1Department of Biomedical Sciences, Vetmeduni Vienna, Veterinärplatz 1, A-1210 Wien, Austria.
Abstract:
The stationary sampling distribution of a neutral decoupled Moran or Wright-Fisher diffusion with neutral mutations is known to first order for a general rate matrix with small but otherwise unconstrained mutation rates. Using this distribution as a starting point we derive results for maximum likelihood estimates of scaled mutation rates from site frequency data under three model assumptions: a twelve-parameter general rate matrix, a nine-parameter reversible rate matrix, and a six-parameter strand-symmetric rate matrix. The site frequency spectrum is assumed to be sampled from a fixed size population in equilibrium, and to consist of allele frequency data at a large number of unlinked sites evolving with a common mutation rate matrix without selective bias. We correct an error in a previous treatment of the same problem (Burden and Tang, 2017) affecting the estimators for the general and strand-symmetric rate matrices. The method is applied to a biological dataset consisting of a site frequency spectrum extracted from short autosomal introns in a sample of Drosophila melanogaster individuals.
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