Identification and validation of risk factors for antisocial behaviour involving police

Adult antisocial behaviour has precursors in childhood and adolescence and is most successfully treated using childhood interventions. The aim of this study was to identify and validate robust risk factors for antisocial behaviour involving police contact in a data-driven, hypothesis-free framework. Antisocial behavior involving police contact (20/25% incidence) as well as 554 other behavioural and environmental measures were assessed in the longitudinal general population Estonian Children Personality Behaviour and Health Study sample (n=872). The strongest risk factors for antisocial behaviour included past substance use disorder, gender, aggressive mode of action upon provocation, and concentration difficulties and physical fighting in school at age 15 years. Prediction using the selected variables for both methods in the other, unseen cohort resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.78-0.84. Our work confirms known risk factors for antisocial behaviour as well as identifies novel specific risk factors. Together, these provide good predictive power in an unseen cohort. Our identification and validation of risk factors for antisocial behaviour can aid early intervention for at-risk individuals.