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Simulation of the Final Size of the Evolution Curve of Coronavirus Epidemic in Morocco using the SIR Model
Ousama Ifguis1, Mohamed El Ghozlani2, Fouzia Ammou3
1Laboratory of Chemical Processes and Applied Materials, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université Sultan Moulay Slimane, B.P. 523, Beni-Mellal, Morocco.
Abstract:
Since the epidemic of COVID-19 was declared in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China, and other parts of the world, several studies have been carried out over several regions to observe the development of the epidemic, to predict its duration, and to estimate its final size, using complex models such as the SEIR model or the simpler ones such as the SIR model. These studies showed that the SIR model is much more efficient than the SEIR model; therefore, we are applying this model in the Kingdom of Morocco since the appearance of the first case on 2 March 2020, with the objective of predicting the final size of the epidemic.
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