Effects of socioeconomic and natural factors on air pollution in China: A spatial panel data analysis

China's energy use has increased significantly in recent years with the country's rapid economic growth and large-scale urbanization. Therefore, air pollution has become a major issue. In this study, we conducted spatial autocorrelation and spatial panel regression analyses of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxide (NO_X) emissions using the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative units in China during the period 2011-2017 to comprehensively understand the factors affecting air pollutant emissions. This study contributes to the literature by considering comprehensive factors and spatial effects in the panel-data econometric framework of the whole country of China. The analysis of spatial characteristics shows that during the study period, pollutant emissions in China declined, although emissions in northern regions were still relatively high. Furthermore, SO₂ and NO_X emissions showed significant positive spatial autocorrelations. The results of a fixed-effect spatial lag model showed that both socioeconomic and natural factors were statistically significant for air pollutant emissions, although the degree differed by the type of pollutant. The population, the urbanization rate, the share of added value of secondary industry, and heating and cooling degree days positively affected emissions, while population density, per-capita gross regional product, precipitation, and relative humidity negatively affected emissions. Based on these results, we have put forward suggestions to address the issue of air pollution and achieve environmental sustainability, such as the promotion of regional cooperation and a transition of the economic structure.