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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Hydrological modelling in small ungauged catchments.

Ulisses B Comini1, Demetrius David DA Silva2, Michel C Moreira2

  • 1Diretoria de Meio Ambiente, Universidade Federal de Viçosa/UFV, Av. P.H. Rolfs, s/n, Campus Universitário, 36570-900 Viçosa, MG, Brazil.

Anais Da Academia Brasileira De Ciencias
|June 25, 2020
PubMed
Summary

Understanding low flow events is crucial for managing water resources. The Silveira Method (SM) effectively estimates flow in small, ungauged basins, revealing potential water supply unsustainability.

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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology
  • Water Resource Management
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Accurate assessment of low flow events is vital for mitigating socioeconomic and ecological impacts.
  • Brazil's limited streamflow measurement network leaves small (<300 km²) basins ungauged.
  • Severe droughts in 2014-2016 highlighted water supply challenges in Minas Gerais.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the performance of the Silveira Method (SM) for estimating low flow in small, ungauged basins.
  • To assess the suitability of SM for predicting local low flow rates during dry seasons.
  • To analyze the water supply scenario in the São Bartolomeu river basin.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Silveira Method (SM), a rainfall-runoff model tailored for dry season flow estimation in small ungauged basins.
  • Applied SM to the São Bartolomeu river basin, a representative small ungauged basin in Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Tested eleven scenarios varying drought period timing and duration for model parameterization.

Main Results:

  • The best SM scenario underestimated low flow rates (Q95) by 31%, indicating suitability for local prediction.
  • The model identified a potential imbalance between granted water concessions and available river flow during dry seasons.
  • Results suggest a risk of unsustainable water supply in the São Bartolomeu river basin.

Conclusions:

  • The Silveira Method (SM) demonstrates capacity as a valuable tool for assessing water potential in small, ungauged basins.
  • Findings highlight the need for careful water resource management to prevent future supply shortages.
  • The study underscores the importance of hydrological modeling for informed water governance.