How to balance ecosystem services and economic benefits? - A case study in the Pearl River Delta, China

There is a significant challenge in resource management: the perceived trade-off between economic growth and ecosystem conservation. In this study, we integrate a variety of quantitative research methods and models, such as the ecosystem service value (ESV), interval parameter planning (IPP), Dyna-CLUE, and Monte Carlo methods, in an attempt to balance the ESV and economic benefits. The highest system benefits can be obtained, and uncertainty in the ecosystem assessment is considered. Taking the Pearl River Delta as the study area, the results show that when the GDP growth rate is less than 6%, the ESV in 2025 will be higher than the ESV in 2017. An interval approach (upper and lower bounds) is used. For a scenario with a 5% GDP growth rate, the ESV is RMB¥ [1.85, 20.79] × 10⁹, which is more than the ESV of the scenario with a 9% GDP growth rate. When the GDP growth rates are 5% and 9%, the proportions of forestland are [61.5%, 61.7%] and [58%, 58.2%], respectively. Furthermore, spatialization was performed using the Dyna-CLUE model. In 2025, the simulated area of farmland is larger in some small regions with 9% GDP growth rate than it is in regions with 5% GDP growth rate, thus achieving a balance between occupation and compensation of regional farmland. By comparing ecosystem planning under different GDP growth rates, an optimized land-use allocation method can help decision makers balance system benefits and ecological risks, which can provide multiple options and specific locations for decision.