A spatial-temporal study for the spread of dengue depending on climate factors in Pakistan (2006-2017)

In Pakistan, dengue fever has become a major concerning factor, given that it is a relatively new disease compared to malaria. The number of people affected by dengue fever has increased at least 10-fold in the last 15 years in specific areas of Pakistan. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse this disease to reduce or prevent the effects of dengue fever in the region.

Geographical information system (GIS) maps are used to identify the intensity of the spread according to the count of affected people in our study area. Generalised linear modelling (GLM) is used to study the significance of factors associated with dengue fever.

The dengue virus is present throughout the year in specific areas of Pakistan. Karachi and Lahore are most significantly affected with cases in these two most populous cities of Pakistan reported every year. In the study period (2006-2017), 2011 was the most devastating year for Pakistan. Lahore recorded more than 17,000 confirmed cases with 290 deaths in a single year. The GLM analysis shows rainfall, the average maximum temperature, and hospitals to be significant factors in the prevalence of dengue fever.

This study finds that Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are two of the primarily vulnerable provinces for the spread of dengue fever. Punjab has observed sporadic increases in dengue fever cases. In Pakistan, dengue cases increase in the rainfall season, especially during monsoon season. Lack of proper hospitals and clinics are another major factor, and mobile hospitals are needed in remote hotspot regions often affected by dengue fever. Finally, improved sanitation systems in metropoles would facilitate reducing breeding grounds for Aedes Aegypti larvae.