All The Same? On a Certain Pattern in Cross-National Death Risk.

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Global Health

Background:

• Nations exhibit varying mortality risk profiles across different causes of death.
• Understanding cross-national patterns in mortality risk is crucial for global health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the correlation between different mortality risk factors across nations.
• To develop metrics for assessing a nation's overall "safety status" based on premature death causes.
• To explore socioeconomic determinants of national safety status.

Main Methods:

• Utilized 2016 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data for 26 large nations and 15 clusters of smaller nations.
• Analyzed six specific causes of premature death: transport accidents, other accidents, homicide, early-childhood diseases, communicable diseases, and noncommunicable diseases.
• Estimated lifespan reductions for each cause relative to natural lifespan and calculated correlations across all cause pairings.

Main Results:

• Significant positive correlations were found between all 15 pairings of the six mortality risk causes.
• Developed metrics for national "safety status" revealed a lifespan difference of nearly three decades between the safest and least safe countries.
• National safety status strongly correlated with GDP per capita (PPP) and income inequality (Gini coefficient).

Conclusions:

• Mortality risks across different causes are interconnected within nations.
• Significant disparities in national safety status exist globally, linked to economic and social factors.
• Economic development and reduced income inequality appear to contribute to a nation's overall safety and longevity.