[Vehicle Emission Inventory and Scenario Analysis in Liaoning from 2000 to 2030]

Vehicle emissions have become a major source of air pollution in urban cities. The vehicle emission inventory of the Liaoning province from 2000 to 2030 was established based on the COPERT model and ArcGIS, and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of six pollutants (CO, NMVOC, NO, PM₁₀, SO₂, and CO₂) were analyzed. Taking 2016 as the base year, eight scenarios of control measures were designed based on scenario analysis, and the effects of different scenarios on emission reduction were assessed. Results showed that during 2000-2016, CO, NMVOC, NO, and PM₁₀ emissions at first exhibited increasing trends, after which they decreased. Emissions of SO₂ exhibited fluctuating trends, while the emissions of CO₂ showed a continuous increase. Passenger cars and motorcycles were the main contributors of CO and NMVOC emissions. Heavy-duty trucks and buses were the main sources of NO and PM₁₀ emissions. Passenger cars were the major contributors to SO₂ and CO₂ emissions. Vehicle emissions were significantly higher in the central and southern in Liaoning Province. At the city level, vehicle emissions were mainly concentrated in Shenyang and Dalian. The scenario analysis showed that the implementation of stricter vehicle emission standards can enhance the emission reduction effect. Moreover, accelerating the implementation of new emission standards was beneficial to reduce emissions. The integrated scenario would achieve the maximum emission reduction, with reduction rates of CO, NMVOC, NO, PM₁₀, CO₂, and SO₂ at 30.7%, 14.3%, 81.7%, 29.4%, 12.3%, and 12.1%, respectively.