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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Forecast of an Emerging Urgency in Pakistan

Rabia M Chaudhry1,2, Asif Hanif1, Muhammad Chaudhary3

  • 1Public Health, University Institute of Public Health, University of Lahore, Lahore, PAK.

Cureus
|July 4, 2020
PubMed

Insights

The COVID-19 pandemic presents a global challenge. This study forecasts over 35,000 cases in Pakistan by May 2020, urging policy re-evaluation.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Infectious Diseases

Background:

  • Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant global health challenge.
  • Limited knowledge and treatment protocols necessitate comprehensive data collection and analysis.
  • The study addresses the urgent need for understanding COVID-19 epidemiology worldwide.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To map the COVID-19 outbreak's epidemiology in Pakistan.
  • To forecast the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic for May 2020.
  • To highlight the rapidly increasing case numbers and prompt a review of current strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Data collection from official reports of the National Institute of Health (NIH), Pakistan, and the World Health Organization (WHO).
  • Statistical analysis using SPSS version 23.
  • Forecasting employing a simple moving average time series model.

Main Results:

  • An alarming increase in COVID-19 cases in Pakistan is observed, despite an initially contained spread.
  • The study predicts exceeding 35,000 COVID-19 cases by the end of May 2020.
  • Findings underscore the urgency for evaluating the efficacy of implemented COVID-19 strategies.

Conclusions:

  • Governing bodies, administrators, and researchers must re-evaluate the current COVID-19 situation.
  • Policies and implemented strategies require urgent assessment in light of the pandemic's trajectory.
  • Proactive measures are crucial to manage and control the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords:
covid-19covid-19 forecastingepidemiologypakistan

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