Semi-probabilistic coastal flood impact analysis: From deterministic hazards to multi-damage model impacts

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Risk Management
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• Coastal flood impact assessments are crucial for risk management, integrating hazard and vulnerability to quantify damage.
• Uncertainties in these assessments must be addressed for accurate consequence representation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a coastal flood impact assessment for Stavanger municipality, Norway.
• To utilize a multi-damage model to quantify impacts and their uncertainties.

Main Methods:

• Hazard modeling using LISFLOOD-FP with historical extreme water levels and sea-level rise scenarios.
• Direct impact calculation (relative and financial damage) for building categories using flood damage curves.

Main Results:

• Current sea level scenario: fewer than 50 flooded receptors and less than €1 million in damage.
• End-of-century optimistic sea-level rise scenario: potential doubling of impacts.
• Identified limitations in hazard and impact modeling for future improvements.

Conclusions:

• The study provides valuable data for cost-benefit analyses of mitigation strategies.
• Findings support local-scale adaptation planning for coastal flood risks.
• Acknowledged limitations highlight areas for future research and model enhancement.