Benchmarking 2D/3D/MD-QSAR Models for Imatinib Derivatives: How Far Can We Predict?

Imatinib, a 2-phenylaminopyridine-based BCR-ABL tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is a highly effective drug for treating Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML). However, cases of drug resistance are constantly emerging due to various mutations in the ABL kinase domain; thus, it is crucial to identify novel bioactive analogues. Reliable QSAR models and molecular docking protocols have been shown to facilitate the discovery of new compounds from chemical libraries prior to experimental testing. However, as the vast majority of QSAR models strictly relies on 2D descriptors, the rise of 3D descriptors directly computed from molecular dynamics simulations offers new opportunities to potentially augment the reliability of QSAR models. Herein, we employed molecular docking and molecular dynamics on a large series of Imatinib derivatives and developed an ensemble of QSAR models relying on deep neural nets (DNN) and hybrid sets of 2D/3D/MD descriptors in order to predict the binding affinity and inhibition potencies of those compounds. Through rigorous validation tests, we showed that our DNN regression models achieved excellent external prediction performances for the pKi data set (n = 555, R² ≥ 0.71. and MAE ≤ 0.85), and the pIC₅₀ data set (n = 306, R² ≥ 0.54. and MAE ≤ 0.71) with strict validation protocols based on external test sets and 10-fold native and nested cross validations. Interestingly, the best DNN and random forest models performed similarly across all descriptor sets. In fact, for this particular series of compounds, our external test results suggest that incorporating additional 3D protein-ligand binding site fingerprint, descriptors, or even MD time-series descriptors did not significantly improve the overall R² but lowered the MAE of DNN QSAR models. Those augmented models could still help in identifying and understanding the key dynamic protein-ligand interactions to be optimized for further molecular design.