Guidance on quantitative pest risk assessment.

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Entomology
• Plant Pathology
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Plant pests pose a significant threat to the EU's agricultural sector and biodiversity.
• Existing methods for pest risk assessment require standardized, quantitative approaches.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide a fit-for-purpose, two-phase guidance for assessing plant pest risk in the EU.
• To support risk managers in decision-making regarding quarantine and regulated non-quarantine pests.
• To enable quantitative assessment of pest entry, establishment, spread, impact, and the effectiveness of risk-reducing options (RROs).

Main Methods:

• Pest categorization to identify quarantine or regulated non-quarantine pests.
• Quantitative pest risk assessment using modeling and expert knowledge elicitation (two-tiered approach).
• Monte Carlo simulations for scenario comparison (e.g., with/without RROs).

Main Results:

• A framework for quantitative pest risk assessment with uncertainty estimation.
• Guidance on deriving appropriate model complexity for assessments.
• Methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of RROs.

Conclusions:

• The guidance provides a robust framework for consistent and quantitative plant pest risk assessment in the EU.
• It facilitates informed decision-making by risk managers and enhances the evaluation of pest management strategies.