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Mobility restrictions for the control of epidemics: When do they work?
Baltazar Espinoza1, Carlos Castillo-Chavez2, Charles Perrings3
1Simon A. Levin Mathematical and Computational Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America.
Plos One
|July 7, 2020
Summary
Mobility restrictions like travel bans may not effectively control infectious disease spread. Unrestricted movement can reduce overall epidemic size, while strict quarantines might paradoxically increase it.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical modeling
- Public health policy
Background:
- Mobility restrictions (travel bans, quarantines) are common infectious disease control measures.
- These measures were used during SARS, H1N1, Ebola, and COVID-19 pandemics.
- However, their effectiveness in reducing overall epidemic size is not always guaranteed.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of mobility restrictions on epidemic size.
- To compare outcomes under unrestricted versus restricted mobility scenarios.
- To evaluate the conditions under which mobility restrictions are effective.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a mathematical model of disease transmission.
- Modeled two distinct communities: one high-risk/high-density/low-resource, one low-risk/low-density/high-resource.
- Simulated disease spread with and without mobility restrictions (cordon sanitaire).
Main Results:
- Unrestricted mobility between communities reduced the overall epidemic size.
- Implementing a cordon sanitaire around the high-risk community decreased secondary cases in the low-risk community.
- Conversely, the cordon sanitaire increased the overall epidemic size.
Conclusions:
- Mobility restrictions may be counterproductive for controlling overall epidemic size.
- Relying solely on mobility restrictions can lead to unintended increases in disease spread.
- Pre-existing mobility patterns may suffice for epidemic containment, challenging the utility of strict restrictions.
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