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Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation
B H Samset1, J S Fuglestvedt2, M T Lund2
1CICERO Center for International Climate Research, P.b. 1129 Blindern, 0318, Oslo, Norway. b.h.samset@cicero.oslo.no.
Nature Communications
|July 9, 2020
Summary
Mitigating greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane can measurably slow global warming. However, the climate system
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Chemistry
- Environmental Policy
Background:
- Achieving Paris Agreement goals requires measurable changes in global warming due to emission mitigation.
- Climate system inertia and variability delay discernible responses to mitigation efforts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the timing of discernible changes in global mean surface temperature following strong mitigation of individual climate forcers.
- To assess the potential impact and timeframe of mitigating specific anthropogenic emissions.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of climate model outputs or observational data to simulate temperature responses.
- Evaluation of the influence of mitigating individual climate forcers (CO2, Black Carbon, Methane, etc.).
Main Results:
- Anthropogenic CO2 mitigation offers significant long-term benefits but requires substantial effort for rapid influence.
- Black Carbon (BC) mitigation provides rapid, discernible effects but limited long-term gains.
- Methane mitigation balances rapid surface temperature effects with long-term benefits.
Conclusions:
- Strong mitigation of CO2, BC, and methane can lead to discernible changes in global warming evolution.
- The impact of other gases and aerosols on global temperature is unlikely to be discernible before mid-century, even with full emission removal.
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