2011 GOLD Stages of COPD: Transitions, Predictor Factors and Comparison with 2017 GOLD Stages

Despite wide use of the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (GOLD) 2011, little is known about between-stage transitions and what factors predict worsening transitions in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

To investigate the transition frequency between GOLD 2011 stages among patients with stable COPD over a 2-year follow-up, to identify potential non-pulmonary predictor factors for worsening transitions, and to compare transition frequencies between GOLD 2011 stages and the new GOLD 2017 stages.

We prospectively included 137 patients with stable COPD (mean age, 66.9 ± 8.3 years). GOLD 2011 and GOLD 2017 stages were measured at baseline, 1-year follow-up, and 2-year follow-up. To evaluate non-pulmonary variables as potential predictors of worsening transitions, we used regression models adjusted for sociodemographic, clinical, and pulmonary variables using generalized estimating equations.

The study period included 246 opportunities for transition, and 39 worsening transitions occurred within GOLD 2011 stages. Predictors of worsening transitions included BODE index (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.00-1.44), quadriceps strength (OR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99), and limited mobility activities (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.05). The frequency of worsening transitions for stages B and C differed between GOLD 2011 and GOLD 2017. Stages A and D were the most stable in both classifications.

Non-pulmonary factors predicted worsening transitions among the GOLD 2011 stages of COPD severity. The choice of GOLD 2011 versus GOLD 2017 may influence transition identification, especially for stages B and C.