Does Opportunity Skip Generations? Reassessing Evidence From Sibling and Cousin Correlations

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Economics
• Genetics

Background:

• Sibling and cousin correlations quantify socioeconomic outcome similarity within families.
• These correlations are often interpreted as evidence of family influence on life chances.
• Existing interpretations may oversimplify the complex processes underlying these correlations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the theoretical ambiguity of sibling and cousin correlations in multigenerational mobility.
• To demonstrate that empirical correlations can arise from multiple distinct theoretical models.
• To develop methods for estimating the uncertainty associated with these correlations.

Main Methods:

• Illustrating theoretical ambiguity using multigenerational mobility models.
• Comparing empirical correlations with alternative transmission theories (latent and dynamic).
• Developing a Bayesian procedure for estimating sibling and cousin correlations and their uncertainty.

Main Results:

• Empirical sibling and cousin correlations are consistent with multiple theoretical explanations, not just direct extended kin influence.
• Alternative theories, such as measurement error or changing parent-child transmission, can also explain observed correlations.
• Point estimates of correlations can be highly uncertain, potentially misleading without uncertainty quantification.

Conclusions:

• Sibling and cousin correlations are descriptive but require theoretical assumptions for interpretation.
• Observed correlations do not uniquely identify specific causal pathways of family influence.
• Future research should use these correlations cautiously, acknowledging their potential for diverse theoretical origins and employing uncertainty estimation.