Modeled Impacts of Drinking Water Pb Reduction Scenarios on Children's Exposures and Blood Lead Levels

In recent years, environmental lead (Pb) exposure through drinking water has resulted in community public health concerns. To understand potential impacts on blood Pb levels (BLLs) from drinking water Pb reduction actions (i.e., combinations of lead service lines [LSL] and corrosion control treatment [CCT] scenarios), EPA's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS)-Multimedia/Integrated Exposure Uptake and Biokinetic (IEUBK) model was applied for U.S. children aged 0 to <6 years. The results utilizing a large drinking water sequential sampling data set from 15 cities to estimate model input concentration distributions demonstrated lowest predicted BLLs for the "no LSLs" with "combined CCT" scenario and highest predicted BLLs for the "yes LSLs" and "no CCT" scenario. Modeled contribution to BLLs from ingestion of residential drinking water ranged from ∼10 to 80%, with the highest estimated for formula-fed infants (age 0 to <1 year). Further analysis using a "bounding" data set spanning a range of realistic water Pb concentrations and variabilities showed BLL predictions consistent with the sequential sampling-derived inputs. Our study illustrates (1) effectiveness of LSL replacement coupled with CCT for reducing Pb in drinking water and children's BLLs, and (2) in some age groups, under realistic local and residential water use conditions, drinking water can be the dominant exposure pathway.