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Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat

Published on: September 12, 2014

Overprecision increases subsequent surprise.

Don A Moore¹, Derek Schatz²

¹University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America.

|July 9, 2020

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Overconfident individuals experience less surprise when correct but more surprise when incorrect. This pattern, however, does not apply to confidence-interval measures, potentially explaining persistent overprecision in judgment.

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Area of Science:

Psychology
Cognitive Science
Behavioral Economics

Background:

Overconfidence bias is a well-documented phenomenon in human judgment.
Understanding the psychological mechanisms behind overprecision is crucial for improving decision-making.
The relationship between confidence and surprise has been theorized but not extensively empirically tested.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the relationship between confidence and surprise following accuracy feedback.
To explore whether this relationship differs for correct versus incorrect judgments.
To determine if different measures of confidence impact the observed confidence-surprise relationship.

Main Methods:

Three studies were conducted involving participants reporting their confidence in beliefs before receiving feedback.
Participants subsequently reported their level of surprise after learning the accuracy of their beliefs.
Confidence was measured using various scales, including confidence intervals.

Main Results:

Higher initial confidence was associated with less surprise for correct answers.
This association reversed for incorrect answers, with higher confidence leading to greater surprise.
The observed pattern between confidence and surprise was absent when using confidence-interval measures.

Conclusions:

The findings suggest that individuals may not be as surprised by their errors as overconfidence theory would predict.
The failure of confidence-interval measures to show this pattern may explain the enduring nature of overprecision.
This research provides insights into the psychological underpinnings of judgment accuracy and self-assessment.