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Switching to electric heat pumps for home heating in most U.S. locations increases costs and pollution. A carbon tax could make heat pumps beneficial, but its impact varies by climate, affecting feasibility.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Energy Policy
  • Climate Change Mitigation

Background:

  • Decarbonization efforts necessitate transitioning from fossil fuels to electricity for applications like space heating.
  • The environmental and economic impacts of switching from natural gas to electric heating are location- and time-dependent.
  • Electrification of heating presents a significant challenge for achieving climate goals.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the consequences of switching from natural gas furnaces to electric heat pumps for household heating in the U.S.
  • To evaluate the impact of electrification on household heating costs, electricity demand, and environmental damages.
  • To assess the effectiveness and distributional impacts of a carbon tax on promoting heat pump adoption.

Main Methods:

  • Geospatial analysis of household heating across 883 U.S. locations.
  • Modeling of electricity demand, including hourly peak load shifts.
  • Economic assessment of heating costs under different carbon pricing scenarios.

Main Results:

  • In most analyzed U.S. locations, switching to heat pumps increases household heating bills and damages from carbon dioxide (CO2) and other pollutants.
  • Heat pump adoption would increase annual hourly peak electricity demand in 658 of 883 locations, shifting peak demand to winter in 393 locations.
  • An economy-wide carbon tax could make heat pumps environmentally beneficial and cheaper than natural gas, but disproportionately increases costs in colder climates.

Conclusions:

  • A widespread switch to electric heat pumps without significant grid decarbonization may not be economically or environmentally optimal for many U.S. households.
  • Carbon pricing can incentivize heat pump adoption and reduce emissions, but uniform carbon dividends may exacerbate regional cost disparities.
  • Policy design must consider regional climate differences to ensure equitable and effective decarbonization strategies for residential heating.