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Random Deviations Improve Micro-Macro Predictions: An Empirical Test.

Michael Mäs1, Dirk Helbing2,3

  • 1Department of Sociology/ICS, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Sociological theories need stochastic, not deterministic, models. Random individual deviations critically shape macro-level outcomes, improving predictions when included in social science theories.

Keywords:
coordination gameevolutionary gameexperimentformal modelingmicro–macro problemnetworknoiserandomnesstheory

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Area of Science:

  • Social Sciences
  • Sociology
  • Computational Social Science

Background:

  • Sociological theories often rely on deterministic micro-assumptions.
  • These assumptions may fail to predict macro-level phenomena accurately.
  • Individual behavioral deviations can lead to significant societal changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically test if random deviations critically shape macro-level social phenomena.
  • To compare the predictive power of deterministic versus stochastic micro-level theories.
  • To investigate the impact of random versus nonrandom deviations on macrooutcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted two experiments to observe individual decision-making.
  • Implemented a deterministic model of bounded rationality.
  • Developed and tested a stochastic version of the same microtheory.
  • Analyzed macro-level outcomes resulting from micro-level behaviors.

Main Results:

  • A deterministic model accurately described 96% of individual decisions but failed to predict macrooutcomes.
  • A stochastic model, incorporating random deviations, significantly improved macro-level predictions.
  • The stochastic model correctly identified conditions where deviations influenced outcomes.
  • Random and nonrandom deviations led to fundamentally different macrooutcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Deterministic microtheories in sociology can be misleading for macro-level predictions.
  • Incorporating stochasticity and individual deviations enhances sociological explanations and predictions.
  • Understanding the role of random variation is crucial for accurate social science modeling.