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Theory of Systemic Risks: Insights from Physics and Chemistry
Klaus Lucas1,2
1Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 8, Aachen, Germany.
Summary
Systemic risks threaten entire systems, posing governance challenges. Analyzing model systems reveals generic mechanisms for understanding and managing these complex risks.
Area of Science:
- Complex Systems Science
- Risk Management Theory
Background:
- Conventional risks are well-understood, but systemic risks, capable of destroying entire systems, present significant governance challenges.
- Understanding the fundamental mechanisms driving systemic risks is crucial for developing effective management strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore analogies between systemic risks and dynamic structure generation in various systems.
- To develop a foundational theory for systemic risks based on insights from model systems.
- To identify potential governance strategies derived from generic patterns of risk generation.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of simple model systems from physics and chemistry to identify elementary processes.
- Generalization of insights from model systems to understand macroscopic dynamic structure generation.
- Comparative analysis of natural, technological, and societal systems exhibiting systemic risk phenomena.
Main Results:
- Elementary processes and generic mechanisms of dynamic structure generation were identified in model systems.
- Analogies between systemic risk phenomena and structure generation were established across diverse systems.
- A basic framework for a theory of systemic risks, including governance hints, was formulated.
Conclusions:
- Insights from model systems provide a generalized understanding of systemic risk generation.
- Generic patterns and clusters relevant to societal processes can be discerned from these insights.
- The study offers a foundational framework for addressing the complex challenge of systemic risk governance.
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