Medicine's dangerous optimism: lessons from Dr Pangloss

Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...

Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 

A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):

Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...

Combining two or more treatment methods increases the life span of cancer patients while reducing damage to vital organs or tissue from the overuse of a single treatment. Combination therapy also targets different cancer-inducing pathways, thus reducing the chances of developing resistance to treatment.
The combination of the drug acetazolamide and sulforaphane is a good example of combination therapy to treat cancer. The cells in the interior of a large tumor often die due to the hypoxic and...

Magical thinking encompasses the belief in assumptions that defy logical reasoning yet appear intuitively convincing. It is a common psychological phenomenon that persists across various cultural and individual contexts. While these assumptions contradict empirical evidence and scientific laws, they often serve meaningful psychological roles in promoting emotional resilience and a sense of control, especially under stress or uncertainty.Thought-Action Fusion and the Law of SimilarityA key...