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Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable
John A Hall1, Christopher P Weaver2, Jayantha Obeysekera3
1Department of Defense, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program and Environmental Security Technology Certification Program, Alexandria, Virginia, USA.
Sea-level rise (SLR) is happening now, posing immediate risks to coastal areas. This review examines U.S. federal efforts to improve coastal risk management by evolving SLR science and scenario planning for better preparedness.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Science
- Coastal Geomorphology
Background:
- Sea-level rise (SLR) is an ongoing global phenomenon impacting coastal regions immediately.
- SLR presents complex challenges for coastal risk management due to its non-uniformity, uncertainty, and influence on extreme water levels.
- Effective coastal planning and emergency preparedness require robust, evolving scientific understanding of SLR.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review United States federal initiatives in synthesizing sea-level rise science for coastal risk management.
- To outline the evolution of SLR scenarios from global projections to risk-based, regional, and probabilistic approaches.
- To provide perspectives on applying SLR scenarios for enhanced preparedness and resilience measures.
Main Methods:
- Literature review of U.S. federal efforts and scientific publications on sea-level rise.
- Analysis of the evolution of global and regional sea-level rise scenarios.
- Examination of the integration of probabilistic approaches and extreme water level data.
Main Results:
- Federal efforts have progressed from basic SLR projections to sophisticated, risk-based scenarios.
- The development includes regionalization of scenarios and incorporation of probabilistic methods.
- Contextualization of scenarios by combining local sea-level changes with extreme water level projections has been advanced.
Conclusions:
- Continued evolution of SLR science and scenario application is critical for effective coastal risk management.
- Improved understanding and application of SLR scenarios enhance preparedness and resilience against coastal flooding.
- Standardized guidance for SLR scenario interpretation and use is essential for decision-making.
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