Progression of confirmed COVID-19 cases after the implementation of control measures

To analyse the measures adopted by countries that have shown control over the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and how each curve of accumulated cases behaved after the implementation of those measures.

The methodology adopted for this study comprises three phases: systemizing control measures adopted by different countries, identifying structural breaks in the growth of the number of cases for those countries, and analyzing Brazilian data in particular.

We noted that China (excluding Hubei Province), Hubei Province, and South Korea have been effective in their deceleration of the growth rates of COVID-19 cases. The effectiveness of the measures taken by these countries could be seen after 1 to 2 weeks of their application. In Italy and Spain, control measures at the national level were taken at a late stage of the epidemic, which could have contributed to the high propagation of COVID-19. In Brazil, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo adopted measures that could be effective in slowing the propagation of the virus. However, we only expect to see their effects on the growth of the curve in the coming days.

Our results may help decisionmakers in countries in relatively early stages of the epidemic, especially Brazil, understand the importance of control measures in decelerating the growth curve of confirmed cases.