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A nomogram to predict skip metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer
Wenlong Wang1, Zhi Yang2, Qianhui Ouyang1
1General Surgery Department, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No.87 Xiangya Road, Changsha, 410008, China.
World Journal of Surgical Oncology
|July 17, 2020
Summary
Skip metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is hard to predict. This study identified tumor size, age, and location as key risk factors, developing a nomogram for better patient assessment and treatment guidance.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Surgical Oncology
- Thyroid Cancer Research
Background:
- Skip metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) involves lateral lymph node metastasis without central involvement.
- Predicting skip metastasis in clinical practice remains challenging.
- Understanding risk factors is crucial for effective patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate independent risk factors associated with skip metastasis in PTC.
- To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for skip metastasis in PTC patients.
- To aid in personalized treatment strategies for PTC.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 378 PTC patients who underwent modified radical neck dissection (MRND).
- Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors.
- Development and internal validation of a nomogram prediction model.
Main Results:
- Skip metastasis occurred in 11.6% of patients.
- Independent risk factors identified: primary tumor size ≤ 1 cm, older age, and upper-portion tumor location.
- The developed nomogram demonstrated good predictive performance (AUC = 0.806) and clinical utility.
Conclusions:
- A high-performance nomogram effectively predicts skip metastasis in PTC.
- The nomogram facilitates individualized risk assessment for PTC patients.
- This tool can guide clinical decision-making and treatment planning.
