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Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Infection Trend Using Technical Analysis Indicators.

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Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
|July 18, 2020
PubMed
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Technical analysis indicators reliably predict SARS-CoV-2 spread trends. Simple moving averages and MACD signals accurately identified trend reversals, offering short-to-mid-term forecasting for COVID-19's viral spread.

Keywords:
Internetimmunizationmedical records

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Financial Market Analysis

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, presents a significant global health challenge.
  • Technical analysis (TA) is widely used in financial markets to predict price trend reversals.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the efficacy of financial technical analysis indicators in forecasting SARS-CoV-2 spread trends.
  • To determine if TA indicators can anticipate increases in COVID-19 transmission.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 datasets from Italy, Iran, and Brazil.
  • Application of three TA indicators: fast/slow Simple Moving Averages (SMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and MACD histogram divergence.
  • Evaluation of indicator performance in signaling trend reversals in new daily COVID-19 cases.

Main Results:

  • Both fast/slow SMAs and MACD provided reliable signals for SARS-CoV-2 spread trend inversions.
  • Consistent results were observed across Italy, Iran, and Brazil.
  • Trend reversals signaled by indicators were followed by sustained trend persistence.

Conclusions:

  • Technical analysis indicators are effective tools for short-to-mid-term prediction of viral spread.
  • These indicators can identify upcoming changes in COVID-19 trend direction (upward, downward, or sideward).