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Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison
Heiko Goelzer1,2, Sophie Nowicki3, Tamsin Edwards4
1Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (IMAU), Utrecht, Netherlands.
Summary
Comparing Greenland ice sheet models reveals diverse initial conditions impact sea-level projections. This study evaluates initialization techniques to reduce uncertainties in ice sheet mass change modeling.
Area of Science:
- * Glaciology
- * Climate Modeling
- * Sea Level Rise Research
Background:
- * Previous Greenland ice sheet projections highlighted significant uncertainties stemming from initial ice sheet conditions.
- * The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve ice sheet modeling.
- * initMIP-Greenland is the inaugural activity within ISMIP6, focusing on Greenland ice sheet initialization.
Purpose of the Study:
- * To compare, evaluate, and enhance ice sheet initialization techniques within the modeling community.
- * To quantify uncertainties associated with these initialization methods in modeled mass changes.
- * To assess the impact of initial conditions on Greenland ice sheet projections.
Main Methods:
- * Two experiments were designed for large-scale Greenland ice sheet modeling: one for initial present-day state and two for idealized forward responses.
- * Models were evaluated for drift in a control experiment (no forcing) and response to a prescribed surface mass balance anomaly.
- * Analysis focused on comparing diverse datasets, boundary conditions, and initialization strategies used by participating models.
Main Results:
- * Significant diversity exists in datasets, boundary conditions, and initialization techniques employed by the modeling community.
- * Good agreement was found in the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in overlapping simulated ice sheet areas.
- * Differences in projections were attributed to variations in the initial size of the Greenland ice sheet across models.
- * Models participating in prior intercomparison exercises demonstrated reduced drift in control runs.
Conclusions:
- * Initialization techniques significantly influence Greenland ice sheet mass change projections and associated uncertainties.
- * Further refinement of initialization strategies is crucial for improving the accuracy of future sea-level rise estimates.
- * The initMIP-Greenland exercise provides valuable insights into current ice sheet modeling capabilities and areas for development.

