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Future changes in the trading of virtual water
Neal T Graham1,2,3, Mohamad I Hejazi4,5, Son H Kim4
1Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA. neal.graham@pnnl.gov.
Nature Communications
|July 21, 2020
Summary
Future global virtual water trading will significantly increase, with renewable water trade potentially tripling and nonrenewable groundwater trade doubling by 2100. This impacts water-stressed regions heavily reliant on virtual water imports.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Agricultural economics
- Hydrology
Background:
- Water-stressed regions depend on imported goods to meet food needs due to local production challenges.
- Virtual water, the water embedded in traded goods, is crucial for understanding global water resource management.
- Existing research lacks comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project changes in virtual water trading of various water types throughout the 21st century.
- To estimate future interregional virtual water flows under evolving socioeconomic and climatic conditions.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of virtual water content in international agricultural trade.
- Modeling future water demands considering socioeconomic and climate change scenarios.
- Estimation of interregional virtual water flows by 2100.
Main Results:
- Virtual water trading in renewable water sources is projected to triple by 2100.
- Trade in nonrenewable groundwater is expected to at least double.
- North American basins, La Plata, and Nile Rivers will be major virtual water exporters.
- Africa, India, and the Middle East will increasingly rely on virtual water imports.
Conclusions:
- Global virtual water trade is set to expand significantly, altering regional water resource dependencies.
- Projected increases in virtual water trade highlight the need for sustainable water management strategies.
- Understanding future virtual water flows is critical for addressing global water security challenges.
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